Santos: Uribe's heir (almost) apparent

The results of Sunday's presidential elections in Colombia surprised pollsters and pundits alike. Everyone predicted a very tight race, with a second round almost inevitable. Instead, Juan Manuel Santos, the government-backed candidate of the U Party, handily outdistanced all contenders. He defeated his nearest rival, Green Party candidate Antanus Mockus, by 25 points and almost succeeded in avoiding the June 20 runoff.

What accounts for the rout?

After all, the country had been widely believed to be suffering from a measure of ``Uribe fatigue.'' Although Alvaro Uribe, Colombia's two-term president, remains personally popular -- his approval ratings are around 70 percent -- many thought that the cumulative effect of a series of scandals and endless political battles and tensions would leave a weary electorate bent on change and that Mockus, the former Bogotá mayor who shrewdly advertised himself as post-Uribe, not anti-Uribe, would benefit from such a mood shift.

The shift was real, and explained Mockus' remarkable political surge in recent months. In the end, however, neither Mockus's appeal nor the public's desire for change was enough to trump the allegiance Colombian voters felt towards Uribe, who was widely credited with bringing the country back from the brink of collapse and creating a widespread sense of greater security.

Uribe's tireless, take-charge style and military pressure managed to put the FARC rebels on the defensive. His government's deals with paramilitary forces, while seriously questioned, also kept the worst abuses in check. Security gains -- homicides and kidnappings dropped sharply -- were accompanied by economic progress. Psychologically, the country moved from despair to hope -- no mean feat.

On Sunday, Uribe was amply rewarded. Santos, who had served as Uribe's defense minister and had resources and party machinery behind him, not only came out on top, but together with the other two political parties that had been part of Uribe's coalition -- Radical Change and Conservative -- marshaled almost two-thirds of the total vote. (In 2002, Uribe got 53 percent of vote, and 62 percent in 2006.)

Uribe's potential heir

Though Santos lacks Uribe's common, political touch, he was well-positioned to be the popular president's heir. Santos himself had won widespread praise as defense minister, first with the controversial raid on a FARC camp in Ecuadorean territory in March 2008 and then with the highly acclaimed Operation Checkmate three months later that freed 16 FARC hostages, including three U.S. defense contractors held for six years and former presidential candidate Ingrid Bentancourt. Though this is Santos' first run at elected office, he had ably served two other Colombian administrations, as minister of trade and finance. His campaign was intelligent, and adjusted well to the Mockus phenomenon.

Mockus' pedagogy and penchant for symbolic politics played well, but took him only so far. When it came time to vote, some who had flirted with Mockus were not prepared to entrust the management of the country's security and foreign-policy agendas to a relative novice. Mockus didn't help himself with gaffes in the campaign about the possible extradition of Uribe or how he felt about Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez (he first said he ``admired'' and then ``respected'' him).

In fact, Chávez's chronic meddling in Colombia's campaign, with his attacks on Santos, helped arouse nationalist sentiment and only bolstered Santos' political standing. Colombians continue to worry about the FARC and their menacing neighbor, who Uribe was seen as having skillfully contained.

But Colombians also want to change politics as usual, which is what Uribe pledged in 2002 but failed to deliver and what the Mockus candidacy exemplifies. In the next three weeks Santos is likely to emphasize some of the themes that have been so successful for Mockus. In his speech Sunday night, he wisely called for national unity and signaled that he was committed to cleaning up Colombia's corruption.

But the loudest cheers came when he thanked Alvaro Uribe and said that he was Colombia's greatest president.

Competing priorities

Santos is well-known in Washington and, perhaps more so than Uribe, sensitive to international public opinion. He is committed to deepening the U.S.-Colombia relationship and is expected to press particularly on securing U.S. congressional approval of the pending free-trade agreement, negotiated and signed by both countries in 2006. His task will not be easy, and may be complicated by continuing concerns, especially among some Democratic lawmakers, about controversies that clouded the Uribe administration. Trade is not exactly high on the agenda, and the administration is inundated with other priorities.

But before Santos gets in full gear he will need to wait until June 20, when he will almost certainly become president-elect. In Colombia's changing climate, he is unlikely to take anything for granted.

After all, just over three months ago, before the country's Constitutional Court ruled against another reelection, the odds seemed good that the president over the next four years would be Alvaro Uribe.