Saturday, October 31, 2009

Why Colombia's Leftist Guerrillas Are Defecting



At a ramshackle radio station nestled in former guerrilla territory, a Colombian soldier-DJ dedicates a country-and-western-style ballad to all the rebels out there having second thoughts about la revolución. In the song, a former guerrilla touts the benefits of disarming. "My life has changed," he declares. "Now I've got a girlfriend. I'm with my family. I give thanks to God."


The message-laden music is part of an army propaganda blitz that includes radio spots, billboards and leaflets dropped by helicopter. Guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia — the nation's largest rebel group, known as the FARC — are told that by turning themselves in, their sins will be forgiven and they can start anew. The campaign is one of the pillars of a broader U.S.-backed military offensive that has driven the FARC out of the most important areas of Colombia and cut the size of the rebel army in half. Since President Alvaro Uribe was first elected in 2002, more than 12,000 FARC fighters have demobilized, including a record 3,027 last year, according to the Colombian army. And because they made the decision to desert on their own, the former guerrillas are more likely to remain on the war's sidelines.


That hasn't always been the case on the other side. Since 2003, about 30,000 right-wing paramilitary fighters who battled the FARC have disarmed. But the bulk of the paramilitaries were ordered by their commanders to lay down their weapons en masse as part of a peace process with the Bogotá government. Some did so only grudgingly and have since formed new militias that are dedicated to drug-trafficking. "If they haven't changed or don't want to change, it's much easier for these fighters to fall back into their former lifestyle," says Mariana Díaz Kraus of the Bogotá think tank Ideas for Peace.


By contrast, as the army hammers rebel positions, many of the FARC deserters say they were desperate to get out. "Every day it's one or two deaths in combat or five or six deaths in a bombing," says a 21-year-old former rebel explosives expert who goes by the nom de guerre Visages. "Many rebels decide that they better get out before it happens to them."


Even FARC higher-ups are throwing in the towel. Perhaps the most high-profile deserter was Elda Mosquera, a one-eyed female comandante better known as Karina, who led a series of devastating guerrilla attacks in the late 1990s. Hemmed in by soldiers last year, Karina cut a deal for herself and her rebel boyfriend. Now she appears on armed forces radio to urge her former comrades-in-arms to give up. "For us, it's much better for these terrorists to turn in their weapons than to die on the battlefield," says General Miguel Pérez, commander of the army's rapid reaction force, based in the southern town of La Macarena. "That's because when rebels desert, it demoralizes the remaining guerrillas."


The exodus has produced a virtuous circle for the army. Deserters often provide key intelligence for army operations, and as the military strikes more blows against the FARC, more guerrillas lose their will to fight. Last year, an army raid that killed FARC spokesman and No. 3 leader Raúl Reyes was based on information provided by a rebel turncoat. A few days later, the bodyguard of Iván Ríos, a member of the FARC's ruling secretariat, pulled off a mafia-style hit job. He executed his boss with a shot to the forehead, cut off his right hand as proof, then turned himself in to the army to collect a $2 million reward.


Visages, the rebel explosives expert, says he initially swallowed the FARC's rhetoric about Marxist revolution and social justice. But after joining, he watched as firing squads gunned down rebels who were unfairly accused of spying for the army. He says the final straw came when the guerrillas forced his pregnant rebel girlfriend to get an abortion. Visages wore civilian clothes and operated in towns, so it was easy for him to get out. When the FARC sent him to collect an extortion payment from a cattle rancher, Visages turned himself in at an army checkpoint. But for uniformed rebels operating in the jungle, escaping often involves hiking through the wilderness for days and avoiding rebel patrols, because the FARC executes deserters.


While in custody at the army base in La Macarena, Visages receives meals, new clothes, cigarettes and even stationery to write to his family. Wearing a T-shirt, jeans and crew-cut hair, the soft-spoken former rebel doesn't look or sound especially lethal as he sits on his bunk inside a well-guarded tent and composes letters to his girlfriend, who is still involved with the FARC. But some of the troops around him can barely contain their rage, because Visages admitted to setting off a car bomb last year that killed two soldiers and badly wounded three others. However, the good treatment pays off when Visages is questioned about his rebel activities. Eager to cooperate, he quickly gives up the identities and addresses of about two dozen FARC collaborators, many of whom are related. By the end of the hour-long interview, an army officer has filled two sheets of white paper with rebel code names like Fusible, Dumas, Chaleco and La Negra and has sketched out a kind of FARC family tree.


Like Visages, most FARC deserters are impoverished young men and women with long rap sheets and few marketable skills. Once transferred to Bogotá and other big cities, they temporarily settle in government-run halfway houses where they can earn high school degrees and take part in job-training programs. But given the FARC's nasty reputation for kidnapping and murder, few Colombians are willing to hire demobilized guerrillas. And there's always the danger that revenge-seeking rebels will track down the fugitives. But now that he has extracted himself from the war, Visages claims it's all good: "Let's see what new opportunities come along."

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Arrest warrant derails Colombia-Ecuador talks



After nearly going to war last year over a Colombian military raid inside Ecuador, the two nations seemed to be patching relations when their foreign ministers met a few weeks ago.

Then an Ecuadorian judge issued an arrest warrant this week for the head of the Colombian armed forces, pushing relations back one giant step.

Colombian Gen. Freddy Padilla, the armed forces chief whose arrest is sought, canceled a meeting scheduled for Friday with Ecuadorian Gen. Fabian Varela. Padilla thought he might be arrested if he traveled to Ecuador.

It's not the first pothole on the path to normalization. Ecuador previously issued an arrest warrant for former Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos, who held the post during last year's raid.

Colombia has dismissed both warrants, saying Ecuador has no jurisdiction to investigate and judge Colombian officials.

Analyst Patrick Esteruelas of the Eurasia Group consulting firm calls Ecuador's actions "schizophrenic."

Two former U.S. ambassadors to the area agree this is par for Ecuadorian foreign policy.
"That's the history of Ecuador, unfortunately," said Peter Romero, ambassador to that nation from 1993 to 1996. "One step forward, two steps back."

Myles Frechette, U.S. ambassador to Colombia from 1994 to 1997, said Friday that "Ecuador is a specialist in bonehead plays. It has been for years. Nothing's changed much."

Former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Heinz Moeller, who served from 2000 to 2003, called the arrest warrant "lamentable."

"It's absurd that these things happen," he said Friday.

Tension between the two nations has existed for years. The latest enmity started in March 2008, when Colombia bombed a guerrilla base inside Ecuador. The raid killed a top leader for the Revolutionary Armed Force of Colombia, commonly known as the FARC. The Marxist guerrilla group has been waging war on Colombia since the 1960s and often takes refuge on the Ecuadorian side of the border.

At least 25 people were killed, most of them said to be FARC guerrillas.

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe hailed the attack, saying "terrorism ... does not respect borders."

Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa called the attack "aggression" and a "massacre" and severed diplomatic relations with Colombia.

Both nations went on war footing but stopped short of military action.

Over time, tensions seemed to dissipate and Colombian Foreign Minister Jaime Bermudez and his Ecuadorian counterpart, Fander Falconi, met last month. After the meeting, Colombia signed a statement saying it would never attack inside Ecuador again.

Friday's meeting between the two nations' top generals was supposed to further repair the damage.

Then came the arrest warrant.

What happened? Perhaps politics. Definitely one branch of the government acting without the consent of the other.

Falconi quickly pointed out that the nation's judicial branch, not Correa's administration, decided to issue the warrant.

Analysts agree that it wasn't Correa's doing.

"That's not a very coordinated government," said Frechette, the former envoy to Colombia. "The executive branch didn't issue that order."

Moeller, the former Ecuadorian foreign minister, said the judge who issued the arrest warrant is "motivated by political criteria."

"I don't have another explanation," said Moeller, who also served as president of the Ecuadorian Congress three times.

Normalization of relations will be a slow process, Eurasia analyst Esteruelas said.

"We're going to see a lot of stops and starts," he said.

Alejandro Santos, editorial director of La Semana weekly news magazine in Colombia, said relations will not improve until the two countries "can close the chapter" on last year's bombing raid.

"That chapter can be closed when the Colombian government promises not to do that. They have done that (promise)," Santos said. "Now Ecuador needs to start avoiding those types of judicial measures against Colombian officials."

Esteruelas said Ecuador felt justifiably aggrieved over the attack and wants to make sure it never happens again. But he also sees another issue at play: Ecuadorian President Correa's plummeting poll numbers and domestic problems with indigenous movements and other political issues.

"It's usually convenient to remind everyone that Correa is fighting for Ecuadorian sovereignty," Esteruelas said, adding that such nationalism "resonates very broadly" across the political spectrum.

But Frechette said, "Correa really does want to reach some kind of agreement."

The problems between the two nations are long-standing and have a lot to do with the 45-year-old war between Colombia and the FARC.

From Ecuador's perspective, the war has displaced about 250,000 Colombians who have sought refuge in Ecuador. Those refugees need services and jobs, further straining a poor area that's already on the brink. Ecuador also resents that the FARC have set up camps inside the country, causing security problems for a nation that is not technically at war with the guerrillas.

From Colombia's point of view, Ecuador is not doing enough to combat the FARC and is allowing the guerrillas to have a sanctuary that Colombian troops cannot reach.

Further complicating the relationship, Ecuador's Correa is politically aligned with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who is no friend of Colombia and its leader, Uribe. Chavez threatened to attack neighboring Colombia after the military raid in Ecuador.

"This has been developing for many years," Moeller said.

But there are great advantages to normalizing relations, most of them economic.

Ecuador, for example, is Colombia's third-largest export market.

Walter Spurrier, president of Grupo Spurrier and director of Weekly Analysis in Guayaquil, Ecuador, and Maria Velez de Berliner, president of the Latin Intelligence Corp. in Alexandria, Virginia, talked with the Inter-American Dialog policy institute last month about Colombia-Ecuador economic activity.

"Re-establishing relations could lead Ecuador to lift sanctions against Colombian products, which forced many small- and medium-sized businesses to collapse on both sides of the border," Velez told the Washington-based think tank.

Said Spurrier, "For Colombia, Ecuador is an important market. Not so the other way around. But the goods Ecuador sells Colombia are difficult to relocate to other markets. Ecuador now attempts to sell Libya and Iran the rice it would have otherwise sold Colombia. Also, Ecuadorian importers have to look for other sources."

Moeller, the former foreign minister, wants normalization to get back on track.

"We have to close the parenthesis," he said. "I hope this passes ... and that they start talking again."

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Colombia's resilient economy

No recession here, But difficult to return to rapid growth

WHEN the figures are finally tallied, Colombia may prove to have weathered the world recession better than any other of the larger Latin American countries. After a slight contraction at the end of 2008, the economy has been growing modestly this year. This resilience stems from continued foreign investment, an increase in government spending on public works and easier money: since December the central bank has cut interest rates by six percentage points, to 4%, a steeper drop than anywhere in the region outside Chile.

But recovery risks being almost as gentle as the downturn. Whereas Brazil is bouncing back strongly, Colombia can expect growth of just 2.5% next year and 3% in 2011, reckons Óscar Zuluaga, the finance minister. Whereas Brazil, Chile and Peru benefit from China’s hunger for commodities, Colombia’s exporters face difficulties. Their biggest market, the United States, is depressed; Venezuela and Ecuador, which take many of their manufactures, have imposed trade barriers.

Even so, Colombia’s economy has dramatically improved in recent years. President Álvaro Uribe’s security policies have helped to restore confidence. Investment soared, from 15% of GDP in 2002 to 26% last year, says Mr Zuluaga. Private business has retooled. After many delays, the government has issued licences to expand several ports; this month it hopes to award a contract for the first of four big road schemes, costing a total of $7.5 billion over four years. It hopes for investment of up to $50 billion in mining and oil over the next decade.

Indeed Colombian officials, like their counterparts in Brazil, worry that a big increase in commodity exports will strengthen the currency (which has already risen sharply against the dollar) and hurt local manufacturers. They are thinking about setting up a Chilean-style offshore stabilisation fund in which to park some of the commodity revenues.

That is a nice problem to have. Others are more humdrum. Both unemployment (12%) and the poverty rate (46%) are above the regional average. Mr Zuluaga says that is because more women work, and the national poverty line is higher than elsewhere. Maybe, but the next president, due to be elected in May, will struggle to generate the feel-good factor that Mr Uribe has enjoyed.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Colombian Exhibition in Shanghai

Colombia's Gold Museum inaugurated "Gold: Prehispanic Art in Colombia," a 250-piece exhibit of pre-Columbian figures in Shanghai, China . It will last two months and more than 30.000 visitors are expected. This is the first time the Colombian museum opens an exhibition in China in more than 25 years.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Colombia looses chance to qualify to South Africa 2010 after defeat in Uruguay

Uruguay beat Colombia 3-1 in Montevideo in a definite game in the classifiers for the World Cup. The result leaves the Colombian team languishing in eighth place in the 10-team South American Zone with just two games to go. The first four go directly to South Africa 2010 and the fifth team classifies for a Play-off to fight for the last place. Colombia is now two points behind the fifth place and will play in October against Chile and Paraguay.