Strange times in Colombia

The rise of dark horse Antanas Mockus to front-runner in Colombia’s presidential race has international tongues wagging. Some see him as a Trojan horse for Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. Others compare him to Peru’s Alberto Fujimori, who went from outsider to dictator. And then there are those who think Colombians have gone cuckoo after so many years of internal war.

You would be forgiven for shuddering at the thought of a Green Party president who, as rector of a university, mooned his students, got married atop an elephant and, as mayor of Bogota, walked around the capital city in a spandex suit and sent about 400 mimes to enforce traffic laws. Not the kind of chap with whom Queen Elizabeth II is clamouring to have tea and scones.

And you would be forgiven for fearing Mr. Mockus’s foreign policy after he said he “admired” Mr. Chavez for submitting his rule to the ballot box (later downgrading the term to “respect”), or that he would extradite current President Alvaro Uribe should Ecuador, a Venezuelan ally, seek to try him for Colombia's incursion into Ecuadorean territory during an attack on a terrorist camp. (Mr. Mockus later apologized for not being an international law expert.)

No, Colombians have not suddenly decided to throw away the progress Mr. Uribe achieved in cornering the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), liberating the economy from insecurity and restoring morale. I would suggest they are trying, awkwardly, to preserve what is best about the President while rectifying the excesses of his era.

Juan Manuel Santos, who was Mr. Uribe’s successful defence minister, is locked in a close race with Mr. Mockus in the first round of the May 30 elections. Mr. Mockus has pledged to honour Mr. Uribe’s anti-FARC policy and recalled that he was commended by the President when, as mayor of Bogota, he collaborated with his security policy. And Colombia’s leftist party, the Democratic Pole, commands a humiliating 6 per cent in the polls.

But Colombians also want to evolve from a country in which a president towered above the institutions to one in which institutions temper political power. Mr. Chavez and Mr. Fujimori were originally elected by voters sick of weak governments. Mr. Mockus, who has risen under a very strong President, says Colombia’s chief problem is “illegality and the justification of illegality by people who normally behave themselves.” His ethical inclination – substantiated by two corruption-free stints as mayor – resonates in a country plagued with scandals ranging from links between the politicians and paramilitary organizations to political espionage by the secret police.

Mr. Mockus’s support comes from young people, urban areas and the middle classes. It is not poor Colombians but the elites who are craving for an end to political excess. The poor are supporting Mr. Santos – Mr. Uribe’s man. This tension between liberalism (in the classical sense) and authoritarianism has defined Colombian history since the tempestuous relationship between Francisco Santander (vice-president) and Simon Bolivar (president) in the republic's beginning. Currently, the tension occurs not just among Colombians but within Colombians: The same voters who give Mr. Uribe a 72-per-cent approval rating are making Mr. Mockus the front-runner.

But a Mockus victory is not a foregone conclusion. His rise as a candidate has been slowed because of his silly statements. Questions abound over his ability to govern, considering his party has only five senators and three representatives in the Colombian Congress, and his personal ambitions.

Marcela Prieto, executive director of Colombia’s Institute of Political Science, told me that “governability would not be a huge problem because the Liberal Party would back him, although he would have trouble putting together stable coalitions. As regards his unpredictability, the danger is attenuated by the fact that his is not a one-man effort: His campaign has brought together three former mayors of Bogota and the former mayor of Medellin, all of whom have strong egos and will act as checks and balances.”

I have seen too many anti-politicians not to fear Mr. Mockus turning into a Fujimori or a Chavez. But the more I observe Colombia, the more I am convinced that his support is for the right reasons, whether he delivers or not – meaning that Colombians will hold him in check if he wins and becomes messianic. And they will force Mr. Santos to restore the pre-eminence of institutions if he bests his rival. A comforting thought because I, too, was starting to think that this most admirable of countries was going cuckoo.

Mompox, Colombia: A town from the pages of Gabriel García Márquez

Colombia’s Mockus Sees Lead Narrow Before May 30 Vote

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Colombia Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus’ lead over former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos has narrowed less than three weeks before the country’s presidential vote, a survey by Datexco Company SA showed.

Mockus would beat Santos of the La U Party by 32.8 percent to 29.3 percent in the first-round vote and would win a second- round runoff with 47.9 percent of the ballots to 33.6 percent for Santos, according to the poll broadcast today on W Radio.

The company’s poll last week had shown Mockus with a 12- point advantage in first-round elections and an almost 22-point lead in the second round. A Centro Nacional de Consultoria poll published last night showed Santos with a slender lead in first- round voting and had the candidates in a statistical dead heat in the second round. A candidate needs more than 50 percent of the first-round vote on May 30 to avoid a June 20 runoff.

Datexco’s most recent survey was conducted May 11-13 and polled 1,200 people in 37 counties by telephone. The margin of error was 2.89 percentage points.

Santos, who was defense minister under President Alvaro Uribe, is credited with weakening the country’s biggest rebel group, known as the FARC. He has promised to continue the campaign against the Marxist guerrillas and attract foreign investment to the $242 billion economy. Mockus has also pledged to retain the security and economic policies of Uribe, while fighting corruption and improving education for Colombia’s 44 million people.

The peso weakened 0.5 percent to 1962.10 per dollar at 9:47 a.m. New York time from 1951.96 yesterday.

Colombia: and the Winner Is, Antanas Mockus

Over the past ten days, strolling along 7th street, a large, noisy and polluted avenue crossing Bogota from south to north, I was amazed to see the windows of apartments overspread with signboards of Antanas Mockus, the presidential candidate of the Green Party. It's the Colombian version of the Obama syndrome.

I am passionate about politics and become quite restless, and thus I resolved to take advantage of a blog's capacity to break down barriers. I decided to fast forward, to a day after the elections, that is, May 31st, and to explain why Antanas Mockus became the president of Colombia on the first round, defeating Juan Manuel Santos, the candidate of the oligarchy, who thought the presidency was his, even before starting campaigning.

These are the five reasons Mockus won the presidency.

1. Postmoderm vs. Traditional. Juan Manuel Santos emphasized security and the threat represented by Chavez. He tried to sound like Uribe, a president Colombians worshiped for his achievements in security. But Colombians were ready to move on. They did not care only about security, but also about human development, education, racial and sexual rights, environment, etc. Colombian sociologist Eduardo Pizzarro, in a recent column, underlined how post-materialist values have being gaining political priority, especially among the youth. Mockus and his vice president Sergio Fajardo were able to interpret a wider range of values Colombians care about today. Santos was more of the same, while Mockus embodied the novelty.

2. New vs. Old. Juan Manuel Santos tried desperately to portrait himself as a reincarnation of president Alvaro Uribe. Before starting the campaign he even said he would run only once Uribe gave him the green light. That was not very smart. Voters don't like a clone. Besides, Santos forgot that Uribe became president because of mass enthusiasm and of a large social movement outside the traditional political parties of Colombia. For Colombians, Uribe was not the expression of the elite but an alternative to politics as usual. Santos, a member of one of the most traditional oligarchic families of Bogota, represented the return to old politics. And the more Santos underscored how deep the roots of his experience in politics and in administration run, the more he reminded voters that he was an oldie. Mockus, instead, embodied the new, and was somehow perceived as the anti-establishment candidate. In this sense, Mockus represented the continuation of Uribe. Santos is involution, while Mockus is evolution.

3. Decency vs. Dirty. Why do you like Mockus? I asked several friends from all walks of life. "He calls out the best that is harbored in us," was the common answer. Voters just fell in love with this original former president of the Nacional University and twice mayor of Bogota. They fell in love not so much with his beard, but rather with his transparency, his simplicity, his honesty. They thought there was no better government program in Colombia then declaring war to endemic corruption and promoting a culture of legality. The buzz about Santos, instead, is that he believes ends, like winning the presidency, justify any means. I was struck to see how much resentment and aversion Santos was able to generate among different people. When Santos hired a Venezuelan publicist, known for being an expert in waging dirty campaigns and spreading false rumors against political opponents, the voters had enough, and deepened their support for Mockus. Voters had grown tired of the scandals and the corruption increasingly surrounding the Uribe administration of which Santos was a defense minister; the illegal interception and activities of the president's secret service agency, the DAS; the extra-judicial killings of more then one thousand innocent young men by the military; the linkages between corrupt politicians and the paramilitary; and the corruption that brought to the first reelection of President Uribe. Mockus embodied decency, while Santos....

4. Unity vs. Polarization. For eight years Uribe applied a rhetoric of enmity, radicalizing the hate of Colombians against the insurgency, and ultimately against everyone opposing his government. Uribe shaped a reality in black and white using a discourse of us against them. No surprise he felt greatly in tune with president Bush. The two indeed went along very well. The cloak of negativity this strategy produced, eventually tired people. Mockus' proposal was the exact opposite. He proposed a politics of togetherness, and called Colombians not to division but to unity. Santos represented polarization, while Mockus unity.

5. Participation vs. Machinery. Three weeks before the elections, Santos admitted that he underestimated the power of the Internet. Santos was confident that the traditional political machinery was going to deliver him the presidency. Mockus promoted a campaign of a different kind, one that empowered all citizens, especially young people, and stimulated their creativity and motivation. Individuals became formidable multipliers of Mocku's message. The campaign turned in a green wave that became bigger and stronger by the day, finally sweeping away Santos' aspirations. Most importantly, the wave cleared the field for an innovative and unique political experiment in Colombia. And God only knows how this country, embedded in decades of social, political and armed conflict, needs to try something new to get rid of old patterns of violence and corruption. Also in the campaign's strategy, Santos represented more of the same, and Santos the novelty - the deepening of democratic participation.

There is no guarantee of success with Mockus. No assured changed. The work ahead is titanic. But he represents a great and excellent opportunity. For now he achieved something already extraordinary in itself: to be elected by a totally free vote; free from drug lords, guerrillas, and traditional powerful machinery's influence. This in it self is a revolution. The biggest, not announced and non-violent revolution in Colombia.