Santos' challenges in Colombia

The incoming president, who succeeds Alvaro Uribe, must transform himself from a military leader into a chief executive who can address a broad range of issues with diplomacy and finesse.

It's no surprise that voters in Colombia chose a tough former defense minister to succeed outgoing President Alvaro Uribe, who is leaving office after two terms. A resounding 69% of those who cast ballots opted for continuity, replacing Uribe, who made serious headway against the leftist guerrillas seeking to overthrow the government, with the man who helped him do it, Juan Manuel Santos.

Santos' military's successes against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia included a daring operation in which rebels were duped into freeing high-profile hostages, and a cross-border raid into Ecuador in which the FARC's No. 2 was killed. But as he heads to the Casa de Narino, the presidential palace, his challenge will be to transform himself from a military leader devoted solely to combating rebels into a chief executive who will be called upon to address a far broader range of issues with diplomacy and finesse. Awaiting him is a multitude of nonmilitary concerns: desperate poverty, entrenched government corruption, unchecked human rights abuses and rampant drug trafficking. He also has diplomatic fence-mending to do with neighbors Ecuador and Venezuela.

Santos comes with some heavy baggage. On his watch, the military developed an anything-goes swagger, not only when taking on guerrillas but also with noncombatants; troops were found to have killed civilians and claimed that they were guerrillas to boost their kill numbers and make themselves appear more successful. And if many Colombians became more optimistic about defeating the FARC, others are more hopeless about their government. Corruption permeates not just the military but the entire political system. Dozens of lawmakers have been indicted or arrested on charges of colluding with paramilitary death squads, the right-wing answer to the FARC.

The most pressing problem, however, is the economy. Santos, a Harvard-educated economist and former finance minister, is viewed as the capable steward the country needs during the global recession. It's not as clear that he'll be the man to deal with some of Colombia's other woes. Ongoing conflict between rich and poor, such as the frequent assassinations of workers attempting to organize unions, has become an international disgrace. Notably, it has hindered the ratification of a trade pact with the United States.

Santos has said he wants to forge a new relationship with the U.S. And this is an appropriate moment to do so, because financial aid to Colombia is being steadily reduced by the Obama administration. In the months ahead, Santos will have many of the same challenges as Uribe but fewer resources. Uribe, in a sense, was Colombia's wartime president. The military man who follows him will be charged with leading the country to peace.

Santos: Uribe's heir (almost) apparent

The results of Sunday's presidential elections in Colombia surprised pollsters and pundits alike. Everyone predicted a very tight race, with a second round almost inevitable. Instead, Juan Manuel Santos, the government-backed candidate of the U Party, handily outdistanced all contenders. He defeated his nearest rival, Green Party candidate Antanus Mockus, by 25 points and almost succeeded in avoiding the June 20 runoff.

What accounts for the rout?

After all, the country had been widely believed to be suffering from a measure of ``Uribe fatigue.'' Although Alvaro Uribe, Colombia's two-term president, remains personally popular -- his approval ratings are around 70 percent -- many thought that the cumulative effect of a series of scandals and endless political battles and tensions would leave a weary electorate bent on change and that Mockus, the former Bogotá mayor who shrewdly advertised himself as post-Uribe, not anti-Uribe, would benefit from such a mood shift.

The shift was real, and explained Mockus' remarkable political surge in recent months. In the end, however, neither Mockus's appeal nor the public's desire for change was enough to trump the allegiance Colombian voters felt towards Uribe, who was widely credited with bringing the country back from the brink of collapse and creating a widespread sense of greater security.

Uribe's tireless, take-charge style and military pressure managed to put the FARC rebels on the defensive. His government's deals with paramilitary forces, while seriously questioned, also kept the worst abuses in check. Security gains -- homicides and kidnappings dropped sharply -- were accompanied by economic progress. Psychologically, the country moved from despair to hope -- no mean feat.

On Sunday, Uribe was amply rewarded. Santos, who had served as Uribe's defense minister and had resources and party machinery behind him, not only came out on top, but together with the other two political parties that had been part of Uribe's coalition -- Radical Change and Conservative -- marshaled almost two-thirds of the total vote. (In 2002, Uribe got 53 percent of vote, and 62 percent in 2006.)

Uribe's potential heir

Though Santos lacks Uribe's common, political touch, he was well-positioned to be the popular president's heir. Santos himself had won widespread praise as defense minister, first with the controversial raid on a FARC camp in Ecuadorean territory in March 2008 and then with the highly acclaimed Operation Checkmate three months later that freed 16 FARC hostages, including three U.S. defense contractors held for six years and former presidential candidate Ingrid Bentancourt. Though this is Santos' first run at elected office, he had ably served two other Colombian administrations, as minister of trade and finance. His campaign was intelligent, and adjusted well to the Mockus phenomenon.

Mockus' pedagogy and penchant for symbolic politics played well, but took him only so far. When it came time to vote, some who had flirted with Mockus were not prepared to entrust the management of the country's security and foreign-policy agendas to a relative novice. Mockus didn't help himself with gaffes in the campaign about the possible extradition of Uribe or how he felt about Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez (he first said he ``admired'' and then ``respected'' him).

In fact, Chávez's chronic meddling in Colombia's campaign, with his attacks on Santos, helped arouse nationalist sentiment and only bolstered Santos' political standing. Colombians continue to worry about the FARC and their menacing neighbor, who Uribe was seen as having skillfully contained.

But Colombians also want to change politics as usual, which is what Uribe pledged in 2002 but failed to deliver and what the Mockus candidacy exemplifies. In the next three weeks Santos is likely to emphasize some of the themes that have been so successful for Mockus. In his speech Sunday night, he wisely called for national unity and signaled that he was committed to cleaning up Colombia's corruption.

But the loudest cheers came when he thanked Alvaro Uribe and said that he was Colombia's greatest president.

Competing priorities

Santos is well-known in Washington and, perhaps more so than Uribe, sensitive to international public opinion. He is committed to deepening the U.S.-Colombia relationship and is expected to press particularly on securing U.S. congressional approval of the pending free-trade agreement, negotiated and signed by both countries in 2006. His task will not be easy, and may be complicated by continuing concerns, especially among some Democratic lawmakers, about controversies that clouded the Uribe administration. Trade is not exactly high on the agenda, and the administration is inundated with other priorities.

But before Santos gets in full gear he will need to wait until June 20, when he will almost certainly become president-elect. In Colombia's changing climate, he is unlikely to take anything for granted.

After all, just over three months ago, before the country's Constitutional Court ruled against another reelection, the odds seemed good that the president over the next four years would be Alvaro Uribe.

Staying the course

By placing the presidency almost within the grasp of Juan Manuel Santos, Colombian voters chose consolidation over idealism.

FOR a candidate facing a tight vote, Juan Manuel Santos seemed unusually calm on the eve of Colombia’s presidential election on May 30th. A former defence minister, Mr Santos is the preferred candidate of Álvaro Uribe, the popular outgoing president. Yet his seemingly lacklustre campaign had allowed a race that might have been easy to become a struggle. The last published opinion polls, taken a week or more before the vote, had him tied with Antanas Mockus, a former mayor of Bogotá whose talk of a new, clean politics captured the imagination of middle-class Colombians. The polls also suggested that, in a run-off between the two, Mr Mockus would win.

But the relaxed Mr Santos said his own polls told a different story—and they turned out to be right. He won a commanding 47% of the vote compared with just 22% for Mr Mockus, and is all but certain to become Colombia’s next president in the run-off on June 20th.

His thumping score underlines how Colombians want above all to consolidate the progress made under Mr Uribe. Before he took office in 2002, the country had endured over half the world’s kidnappings and its highest murder rate. Much of Colombia was ravaged by leftist guerrillas and right-wing paramilitaries. Mr Uribe’s security build-up reduced the guerrillas to an irritant and persuaded the paramilitaries to demobilise. Greater security brought foreign investment and economic growth.

Mr Mockus bet that precisely because of these gains, Colombians now have other concerns. He insisted on the importance of “democratic legality”, called life and public funds “sacred” and said that in pacifying the country there should be no “shortcuts”. That was a criticism of the many scandals that have marred Mr Uribe’s rule. Perhaps the worst of them was the revelation that in a grotesquely misguided attempt to be seen to be winning, the army had killed scores, and perhaps hundreds, of civilians and dressed them as dead guerrillas.

Mr Santos retorted that as defence minister he dealt with this crime by sacking more than two dozen senior officers and drawing up new rules of engagement for the army. And he countered Mr Mockus’s rise by stressing that his own experience went beyond security. He is also a former finance minister and said that his priority as president would be jobs.

Mr Mockus’s honest idealism strayed into political naivety. He said he would support the extradition of both Mr Uribe and Mr Santos to Ecuador if the courts there persisted with charges against them over the bombing of a FARC camp just across the border in 2008. (He later backtracked.) He said he “admired” Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s leftist president, who has imposed curbs on Colombian exports and threatened war. Mr Mockus then claimed he meant to say “respected”.

Such missteps reminded voters that Colombia’s renaissance could be reversed. Mr Uribe himself capitalised with a barrage of radio interviews calling for the continuation of his policies. Although he was legally barred from endorsing a candidate, this amounted to a thinly veiled campaign for Mr Santos, the candidate of his U Party. The day after the vote, Mr Santos met Mr Uribe in the presidential palace and credited him with the victory. In addition, as a former independent running for the small Green Party, Mr Mockus lacked a political machine to get out the vote.

It is hard to see how Mr Santos might lose the run-off. He has already received the backing of the Conservative Party, which is part of Mr Uribe’s congressional coalition and whose own candidate fared poorly. Another former uribista, Germán Vargas Lleras, who came third with 10% of the vote, has also backed Mr Santos. Parts of the opposition will do the same: many legislators from the Liberal party prefer Mr Santos, who like Mr Uribe is a former Liberal, to Mr Mockus.

Ever the purist, Mr Mockus says he will not engage in political horse-trading. During the campaign he alienated the wealthy by promising new taxes and pushed away the left by rejecting overtures from the Democratic Alternative Pole party, saying it had factions that were close to the FARC. He now has just three weeks to try to rekindle the spark of popular enthusiasm he briefly ignited at the start of the campaign.

For Mr Santos the presidency is tantalisingly close, but it is not yet won. Perhaps the biggest threat he faces in the run-off is a low turnout, in a country where voting is voluntary. Only 49% of the electorate voted on May 30th. But he has done most of the hard work of persuading Colombians to stay the course that Mr Uribe set.

Ex-Defense Chief Leads in Colombia

BOGOTÁ, Colombia — A scion of a powerful Colombian family comfortably won more votes than an eccentric former mayor of Bogotá in presidential elections on Sunday, but narrowly failed to get the majority needed to prevent a runoff election in June between the two men.

The lead vote-getter, Juan Manuel Santos, the architect of crushing blows against guerrillas as a defense minister under President Álvaro Uribe, took 46.6 percent, against 21.5 percent for his main rival, Antanas Mockus, a French-educated mathematician who had unexpectedly emerged as a strong contender in the race, Colombian election authorities said Sunday night. Several other candidates garnered shares of the remainder of the vote.

Mr. Santos’s inability to win more than 50 percent opens the way for a new campaigning phase in which the two are expected to fiercely criticize each other’s capabilities yet again. Mr. Mockus has emphasized human rights scandals on his opponent’s watch as defense minister, while Mr. Santos has questioned if Mr. Mockus is ready to lead a country that faces resilient security threats from leftist rebels and drug-trafficking gangs.

Despite polls that briefly signaled that Mr. Mockus was within grasp of a victory, the results showed that many voters were instead ready to support Mr. Santos, who portrayed himself as the political heir to Mr. Uribe, a strong ally of the United States who lowered kidnapping and murder rates during his eight years in power.

“Of all the candidates running, Santos wears the pants when it comes to confronting the guerrillas,” said Fernando Morales, 37, a security guard, after casting his vote here.

“I don’t like Mockus much because he’s someone who lowers his pants to get attention,” Mr. Morales said in a dig at Mr. Mockus, who as a university dean rose to prominence in the 1990s after dropping his trousers and mooning an auditorium of unruly students. The episode forced Mr. Mockus to resign from his post, but gave him the publicity to run successfully for mayor of Bogotá.

Mr. Mockus, 58, won plaudits in two colorful terms as mayor after improving the quality of life in a city that had been plagued by car bombs and generalized chaos. Drawing on arcane philosophical concepts, he used mimes to curb traffic violations and persuaded Bogotanos to pay more taxes in exchange for improved services.

Mr. Mockus campaigned on an anticorruption platform, emphasizing scandals including wiretaps of prominent judges by Mr. Uribe’s intelligence agency and the killing of civilians by soldiers who then catalogued them as guerrillas in efforts to raise combat-kill statistics.

But at the end of the day many Colombians voted for continuity, even if Mr. Mockus’s message of accountability resonated. “Colombians want stability, but they also seem to want clean government,” said Cynthia Arnson, a specialist on Colombian politics at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.

Just as Mr. Mockus ran an antiestablishment campaign as the head of the Green Party, Mr. Santos, 59, embodied the establishment that is the bedrock of support for President Uribe. Mr. Santos’s granduncle Eduardo Santos was president of Colombia; a cousin, Francisco Santos, is currently vice president; and his family wields influence through El Tiempo, a leading newspaper here in which it has a stake.

While Mr. Santos campaigned on his record of marginalizing the country’s largest rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, it still wreaks havoc in some areas. Underscoring this threat, the FARC killed two children in a grenade attack on the eve of the election in the remote hamlet of El Plateado in southwestern Colombia, the Colombian armed forces reported.

That episode followed an ambush by the FARC in the southern department, or province, of Caquetá last week that killed nine marines on a patrol, the biggest loss of life by the security forces since January. Indeed, the FARC’s resilience in recent months had emerged as an issue for some in Colombia ahead of the vote.

“Don’t let them say they’re leaving behind a country that’s a paradise,” Héctor Abad Faciolince, one of Colombia’s top writers and social commentators, wrote in a column criticizing the Uribe administration in the newspaper El Espectador on Sunday.

Other countries in Latin America are closely following the election here, especially Venezuela, where President Hugo Chávez, who has already traded barbs with Mr. Santos and who has tense economic and political relations with Mr. Uribe’s government, has vowed to limit trade further with Colombia if Mr. Santos wins.

“Mr. Chávez and I probably don’t agree on anything,” Mr. Santos, 59, said in an interview here, acknowledging that relations with Venezuela would be a challenge. “The concept of democracy, the concept of freedom, the concept of private property, the concept of the independence of the powers of the state. But if we respect the way we differ, we can have cordial relations.”

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