Colombia's Increasing Hemispheric Isolation

November 12, 2009 —

These days, President Alvaro Uribe of Colombia has few friends in the hemisphere, and Washington is not explicit in supporting a feisty president, whose followers seek his extension for a third term in office. Colombia (45 million people) has a potential border war with Venezuela (26.4 million people), friction over guerilla encampments in neighboring Ecuador, rejection of the Bank of the South and sullen expressions of friendship from Brazil. What are the reasons for this isolation, and what might the Obama administration do to remedy the situation?

President Uribe stepped up to offer the U.S. Department of Defense access to seven of its airbases in Colombia when the 1999 agreement to base aircraft at Eloy Alfaro airbase outside Manta, Ecuador ended in June 2009. The agreement was a logical extension of strong U.S. and Colombian ties to counter narcotics shipments, but the manner in which the Colombian offer was communicated to both a domestic and South American audience was clumsy at best. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced a visit to the region and then cancelled it. Colombia’s Foreign Minister, Jaime Bermudez announced that "we are deepening cooperation agreements that already exist in our common struggle against narcotrafficking and terrorism" before the agreement had been finalized. This created a degree of uncertainty and opportunities for heightened opposition within Colombian political circles. In response to questions about the pending agreement, the U.S. Embassy in Bogota declined to comment, citing the sensitivity of the issue. It raised doubts as to whether the Obama administration would remain as firm in its commitment to Colombia counternarcotics and counterinsurgency strategy as its predecessor. For some in the hemisphere, the muddled message suggested a degree of doubt in Washington's commitment to the Uribe government. However, a strong U.S. commitment was reiterated to Colombian Vice President Santos when he visited Washington this week. In the meantime, hemispheric neighbors failed to move beyond the announcement, giving scope to those who seek to distance themselves from Washington.

The result of the announcement was strident "anti-gringoism", which played into the hands of Hugo Chavez and his colleagues within ALBA, the Bolivarian Alternative for the America. It also left Brazilian President Lula, the founder of the South American Defense Force that deliberately excluded U.S. participation, irritated that he had not been consulted sufficiently ahead of time. Good neighborliness surely indicated a formal "heads up" before U.S. aircraft acquired landing rights at airbases on Brazil's northern border. Uribe visited all countries in South America to explain the nature of the access agreement, but he did not receive any public endorsements. Only Mexico appreciated Colombia's dilemma.

Second, in September, the presidents of seven South American countries formalized the creation of BANSUR (the Bank of the South) with capital of $7 billion. This multilateral bank is a further addition to three other regional multilateral development banks, and its governance structure is based on consensus, in order to reduce real economic asymmetries between the member states, such as Brazil and Bolivia. Colombia had an opportunity to play a constructive political role in the new bank, but, along with Chile and Peru, it chose not to join.

Third, Colombia and Venezuela are engaged in a series of commercial spats across their 2,200 kilometer border that escalated on November 9 with Hugo Chavez's strident and bellicose statements directed at Uribe's government. At border posts, commercial tiffs have spiraled into the killing of border guards and others close to the border. On November 1, two Venezuelan soldiers were killed at a border checkpoint with Colombia. (It appears that the soldiers were killed in retribution for Venezuelan authorities' capture the previous week of ten suspected para-militaries.) In September, ten members of an amateur Colombian soccer team were kidnapped and killed near the border. Furthermore, Venezuela is holding three men - two Colombians and a Venezuelan – accused of spying for Colombia. Colombia’s relations with Venezuela are tense, with the hope that threats on the part of the latter to 'blast Bogota' are nothing more than Chavista bombast.

Fourth, President Uribe's strong commitment to free-market capitalism is in stark contrast to the socialist tendencies of Colombia's neighbors. Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia may pursue Bolivarian socialism with vigor, but Brazil pursues moderate socialist policies while seeking international capital investments. In response to the global economic recession, Uribe's administration has cut capital controls, arranged for emergency credit lines from the Inter-American Development Bank, and promoted investment incentives, such as Colombia's modernized free trade zone mechanism, as well as new bilateral investment treaties. Despite these measures, the business sector remains concerned about the depreciated value of the U.S. dollar, which makes the export of cut flowers and other goods to the United States more expensive. Chambers of Commerce remain concerned about U.S. Congressional approval of the Colombian Free Trade Agreement. Finally, Colombia has received approximately $6.8 billion of U.S. aid to combat the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), demobilize the paramilitaries, eradicate cocaine plants and coca manufacturing centers, and to provide alternative livelihood. The bulk of this assistance (79 percent) has gone to counternarcotics and security objectives in the years FY 2000 to FY 2008. The remaining 21 percent is dedicated to social and economic programs, as well as promoting the rule of law. This makes Colombia the leading recipient of U.S. aid money in the hemisphere. The perception of Colombian dependency upon Washington is ridiculed by neighboring countries in the face of continued Congressional opposition to a Colombian Free Trade Agreement. Colombia's neighbors wonder why Washington has not rewarded its good friend in South America.

What should Washington do, if anything, about Colombia's isolation? First and foremost for President Uribe is the passage of the Free Trade Agreement, which has been held up in Congress since 2008 by Democratic insistence that Uribe demonstrate his defense of human rights and the protection of trade union leaders. Uribe recognizes that it must await passage of the health reform bill, but free trade should not await passage of other key legislative measures, such as the cap & trade bill and regulation of financial markets. We can accomplish passage of the Colombian Free Trade Agreement as well as key domestic legislation before the mid-term elections in 2010.

Second, U.S. opposition to Uribe's pursuit of a third term may be offensive to those of us who respect term limits and consider that democracy is larger than any one person. But we should not be pious. Mayor Mike Bloomberg sought and obtained from New York's City Council a one time exception to the term limits, permitting him to run for a third term. Defense of the exception for Bloomberg was balanced against the need for experienced and effective management of New York City during the global economic recession. Colombia's Constitutional Court is currently debating the same issue. If the court approves, Uribe's supporters must also persuade 7.2 million Colombians in a national referendum that a third time is preferable. The institutional steps that must be taken before the people of Colombia extend Uribe's term create a relatively high bar. Elites are against a third term, but the popular vote wants Uribe to remain, out of fear that a new leader might not be strong enough to prevent a return to the violence of the 1990s.

Third, we need to stick with Plan Colombia and U.S. military and financial support to fight the cartels, and train police and the army in human rights, intelligence gathering skills and community policing. Our contribution is small compared to the revenues generated through additional Colombian taxes, but it is important and perhaps necessary to create sustainable public security, and provide sophisticated equipment and support for the development of alternative livelihoods.

Finally, we must find ways to encourage Uribe to be a team player in the hemisphere. If he fights with his back to the wall, we should not be surprised at his pugnacity and "go-it-alone" spirit. With the confidence that he has the backing of Panama, Mexico, the United States and potentially Chile and Peru, Colombia can be drawn back into strong relationships- if not leadership- within the hemisphere. Current Venezuelan goals make this difficult, but our rejection of policies considered critical to Colombia only drives Uribe further into his corner.

Venezuela Blows Up Two Foot Bridges to Colombia

SAN ANTONIO, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan soldiers on Thursday blew up two makeshift foot bridges that stretched across the border to Colombia in the latest incident to stoke a diplomatic dispute between the Andean neighbors.

Colombia's government criticized the destruction of the bridges as an aggression and a violation of international law, which it would denounce at the United Nations and the Organization of American States in Washington.

The long-simmering Andes spat has been mostly limited to diplomatic barbs in the past. But the current crisis is raising the risk of more violence along the volatile frontier where rebels, drug gangs and smugglers operate.

General Eusebio Aguero, Venezuela's army commander in the Tachira border region, ordered his soldiers to destroy the bridges using explosives. He said the crossings were unauthorized and used for illegal activities.

"They are two foot bridges that paramilitary fighters used, where gasoline and drug precursors were smuggled, subversive groups entered," he told reporters, adding that several other bridges would be destroyed. "They are not considered in any international treaty."

Colombian Defense Minister Gabriel Silva said troops from the Venezuelan army arrived in trucks and dynamited the bridges that cross into Colombia's Norte de Santander department.

The Colombian Foreign Ministry said in a statement: "This is a unilateral act and an aggression against the civilian population and the frontier communities."

MORE ACCESS FOR U.S. MILITARY

Tensions are high between U.S. ally Colombia and Venezuela over a Colombian plan to allow the United States more access to its military bases as part of anti-drug and counter-insurgency cooperation against FARC rebels.

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, a fierce U.S. adversary, has sent more troops to the border and told his military commanders to "prepare for war" because he says the U.S. base plan could be used to stage an invasion of his OPEC nation.

In a document to justify a request for funds to expand one of the bases, the U.S. Air Force said Colombia was ideal to provide air access to most of South America and cited anti-U.S. governments as one of the reasons it needed that access.

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe says the base deal is just an extension of current cooperation with U.S. troops. But he has urged the United Nations and the Organization of American States to investigate Chavez's "war threats".

The two countries have in the past managed to work out their differences. But the current crisis is already cutting into their $7 billion annual bilateral trade, making this dispute harder to resolve.

Many analysts say Chavez may be looking for political gain by stirring up tensions as a way to distract from domestic troubles, such as power and water shortages that are threatening to dent his popularity.

Colombia's four-decade guerrilla war often spills over the border, where killing and kidnapping are common. Chavez accuses Colombia of not protecting its border, while Colombian officials say he backs Colombia's FARC rebels.

Jaw-jaw war

HUGO CHÁVEZ’S belligerent rhetoric trades at a substantial discount. So when on November 8th he announced during his weekly television show that Venezuela’s army should “prepare for war”, apparently with Colombia, this was greeted with concern but not panic. Sure enough, three days later Mr Chávez was denying his message was meant as a threat. But his verbal salvoes aggravate the mistrust between the two neighbours.

The latest batch was triggered by an agreement signed on October 30th under which Colombia has granted the United States access to up to seven military bases. Both governments insist that this poses no threat to other countries. It formalises existing arrangements under which the United States helps Colombia combat drug traffickers and guerrillas; Colombia will now also host anti-drug surveillance flights over the Pacific by American planes previously operating from Ecuador.

Mr Chávez claims that the agreement is an “open aggression” aimed at ousting him from power. Any attack by the United States or Colombia would trigger “a 100-year war”, he said. When news of the accord broke in July, he responded by freezing cross-border trade (which was flourishing). That has thrown many people out of work in Venezuela’s border state of Táchira, aggravating a climate of lawlessness there. Recent weeks have seen the kidnap and murder of 11 men, eight of them Colombian, the murder of two Venezuelan national guardsmen; deportations of undocumented migrants and the arrest on both sides of alleged spies.

In early November Mr Chávez ordered the deployment of 15,000 national-guard troops to border areas. It is not clear how many have arrived. Some seem to have gone to the southern border with Brazil, to deal with illegal mining. Venezuela lacks the trucks and planes needed to move large numbers of troops quickly.

In any conventional war, Colombia’s army would surely win. It has been hardened by American aid and training and years of action against the FARC guerrillas. Venezuela’s only hope would be a quick air strike, using recently acquired Russian Sukhoi jets. It has doubtless occurred to Colombian officials that the presence of Americans at their main air bases might cause Mr Chávez to think twice before launching such a strike.

According to Alberto Müller, a retired general and former leader of Mr Chávez’s United Socialist Party, Venezuela is waging “a different kind of war”, for public opinion rather than territory. If so, Mr Chávez seems to be losing it. In a recent survey by Datanálisis, a polling firm, 80% of respondents opposed a war with Colombia, and a big majority opposed trade sanctions. To complicate matters further, several million Colombians live in Venezuela. Across the border, Mr Chávez’s constant threats seem to have caused Colombians to rally round their president, Álvaro Uribe, who may run for a third term in May.

Venezuela will hold a legislative election in September. Mr Chávez appears to be seeking an external enemy to distract attention from mounting problems, ranging from regular electricity blackouts to inflation and public-spending cuts.

Colombia this week said it would complain to the Organisation of American States and the United Nations about Mr Chávez’s unneighbourly behaviour. Brazil has offered mediation; so might Spain. That could be useful. After all, those who constantly talk of war sometimes trigger it, accidentally or on purpose.

Colombia to appeal 'war threats' by Venezuela

The Colombian government said it would appeal to international bodies over what it called a threat made over the weekend by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

On his weekly Sunday television show, Chavez ordered the Venezuelan military to begin preparations for a war with the neighboring country, warning of a conspiracy between Colombia and the United States to attack Venezuela.

"The two governments have joined together to fool the world or to try to fool the world," Chavez said.

Addressing his military commanders, he added, "Let's not waste a single day in the preparation of our main mission: to prepare ourselves for war and to help the people prepare for war. It's everyone's responsibility."

On Sunday Colombia's government responded, saying it has not undertaken any hostile actions toward Venezuela. Colombia said it would ask for intervention from the United Nations Security Council and the Organization of American States.

A Colombian government spokesman, Cesar Mauricio Velasquez, called Chavez's remarks "war threats."

On Monday Venezuela retorted by calling Colombia's response "hypocritical" and "immoral."
Chavez's accusations of threats from Colombia and the United States come from an agreement between the two countries that allows U.S. military personnel to be stationed at seven Colombian military bases.

The Venezuelan leader is the leading critic of the agreement and has said that the agreement is part of a plot to destabilize his leftist government.

"Don't be mistaken, Mr. Obama, and order an overt aggression against Venezuela using Colombia," Chavez said Sunday, in a reference to U.S. President Barack Obama. "Don't make that mistake, because we are willing to do whatever it takes. Venezuela will never again be a colony."

On Monday the U.S. State Department said it supported talks to defuse the conflict.

"We support Colombia's call for dialogue between Venezuela and Colombia to overcome recent tensions in the relationship," a State Department spokesman told CNN en Español. "As a member of the hemispheric community, we are prepared to work collaboratively to promote peaceful solutions to disputes in the region."

Relations between Colombia and Venezuela have been rocky since the summer.

In August, Colombia accused Venezuela of supplying guerillas with shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons. Such weapons seized from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, had been traced to Venezuela, Colombia said.

The FARC has been fighting the Colombian government for more than 45 years.

Chavez, at the time, said the accusation amounted to blackmail.

Last month Venezuelan authorities said they captured two Colombian spies. Colombia denied the claim.

Also in October, near the border between the two countries, Venezuelan authorities found the murdered bodies of 10 men that Colombia described as an amateur soccer team that had been kidnapped near the border. Venezuela said the men were paramilitaries.

Tensions were last stoked a week ago when two Venezuelan national guardsmen at an international bridge between the two countries were killed by gunmen on motorcycles.
Venezuela blamed Colombian paramilitaries for the attacks, and accused the Colombian government of complacency toward such groups.