Santos, Sanin Favoured In Colombia Election Race - Poll

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Former Colombian Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos leads the race for May's presidential vote, but would likely face Conservative candidate Noemi Sanin in a June run-off, a poll said on Sunday.

President Alvaro Uribe, a key U.S. ally in the region, steps down this year after two terms dominated by his campaign against rebels and any candidate to succeed him will likely stick close to his popular security and investment policies.

Santos, head of Uribe's U Party, would win 36 percent of the votes and Sanin, a former foreign minister, 17 percent in the first round, according to local pollster Ipsos-Napoleon Franco printed in Semana weekly news magazine.

Sunday's poll results mirror two recent surveys showing the June run-off will likely be between Santos and Sanin, who both claim to be heirs to Uribe's successful security campaign and promise to bring more social and economic development.

Their nearest rival, former Bogota Mayor Antanas Mockus, an independent, had 9 percent followed by former Uribe ally German Vargas Lleras with 8 percent and leftist opposition candidate Gustavo Petro at 6 percent, the poll said.

To win outright in May's first ballot, a candidate must secure more than 50 percent of the votes. Neither of the two leading candidates has enough support for the moment to avoid a second round in June.

In a second round, Santos would win 44 percent of the vote compared with 30 percent for Sanin, the poll said.

Santos is more clearly identified by Colombians with Uribe's government, but Sanin could present herself as a more moderate Uribe supporter and the candidate who could attract more opposition votes to her camp in a run-off, analysts say.

Violence, kidnappings and bombings from the Andean country's long war have eased since Uribe was first elected in 2002 promising to smash Latin America's longest-running rebel insurgency with the help of billions of dollars in U.S. aid.

Foreign investment, especially in oil and mining, has flooded back, jumping to an expected $10 billion (6.7 billion pounds) this year from $2 billion when Uribe came to office eight years ago.
Many Colombians still thank Uribe to taking on the guerrillas, outlawed paramilitaries and cocaine traffickers who once controlled large parts of the country. But polls show most Colombians are more concerned about unemployment, poverty and health coverage than security.