Uribe would win Colombian election: poll

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombian President Alvaro Uribe would win election if he ran for a third term, but if he stepped aside, his former defense minister Juan Manuel Santos is the strongest contender, a poll shows.

Uribe, a conservative first elected in 2002, has not said whether he will seek re-election in May. The Constitutional Court is about to rule on a referendum on whether to change the constitution and allow him to seek four more years in office.

Should Uribe run, 46 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for him, followed by former Medellin mayor Sergio Fajardo and leftist candidate Gustavo Petro, each with 9 percent approval, according to the Centro Nacional de Consultoria poll broadcast by CM& television Tuesday night.

Supporters are pushing for the re-election of Uribe, a U.S. ally who is popular for his drive against left-wing rebels. But time is short with only three months before the presidential ballot and some analysts see support for re-election slipping.

Local media reported a Constitutional Court magistrate has already recommended to his peers they reject the re-election because of irregularities in a confidential, nonbinding opinion that could lend weight to judges leaning against Uribe's bid.

Uribe has also been forced on the defensive for two weeks over his government's attempts to reform the social security system with a series of decrees that opponents have criticized as improvised and unfair to patients.

"Although the Court's eventual ruling remains highly uncertain, the balance of opinion appears to be tilting against approving the referendum of late," Patrick Esteruelas at Eurasia Group said in a report.

Even if the Court rules in Uribe's favor, there is little time to register his candidacy and for authorities to organize the popular referendum on re-election before a May 30 presidential ballot.

ALTERNATIVES WAIT IN WINGS

Should Uribe step aside or be blocked from running, a successful candidate will likely adhere to his security and pro-investment policies that many Colombians still applaud for reducing violence from their country's long war.

If Uribe does not run, Santos is the strongest candidate, with 18 percent backing, according to the poll. He is followed by Fajardo with 12 percent and former defense minister and three-time presidential candidate Noemi Sanin at 11 percent.

Santos is closely associated with Uribe's security drive, which has reduced rebels from the FARC, or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, to their weakest position in decades.
Fajardo is an independent who was praised for rejuvenating Medellin, one of the country's main cities.

Uribe sent troops to take back areas once controlled by guerrillas, and kidnappings and bombings have dropped sharply. Colombia remains the No. 1 supplier of cocaine, which illegal armed groups traffic to finance their war on the state.

But Uribe's second term has been marred by scandals over security and human rights, and the re-election question has raised concerns among critics and even some supporters over the threat it poses to Colombia's democratic institutions.

The poll surveyed 2,000 voters nationwide and had a margin of error of 2.1 percent.