Colombia: and the Winner Is, Antanas Mockus

Over the past ten days, strolling along 7th street, a large, noisy and polluted avenue crossing Bogota from south to north, I was amazed to see the windows of apartments overspread with signboards of Antanas Mockus, the presidential candidate of the Green Party. It's the Colombian version of the Obama syndrome.

I am passionate about politics and become quite restless, and thus I resolved to take advantage of a blog's capacity to break down barriers. I decided to fast forward, to a day after the elections, that is, May 31st, and to explain why Antanas Mockus became the president of Colombia on the first round, defeating Juan Manuel Santos, the candidate of the oligarchy, who thought the presidency was his, even before starting campaigning.

These are the five reasons Mockus won the presidency.

1. Postmoderm vs. Traditional. Juan Manuel Santos emphasized security and the threat represented by Chavez. He tried to sound like Uribe, a president Colombians worshiped for his achievements in security. But Colombians were ready to move on. They did not care only about security, but also about human development, education, racial and sexual rights, environment, etc. Colombian sociologist Eduardo Pizzarro, in a recent column, underlined how post-materialist values have being gaining political priority, especially among the youth. Mockus and his vice president Sergio Fajardo were able to interpret a wider range of values Colombians care about today. Santos was more of the same, while Mockus embodied the novelty.

2. New vs. Old. Juan Manuel Santos tried desperately to portrait himself as a reincarnation of president Alvaro Uribe. Before starting the campaign he even said he would run only once Uribe gave him the green light. That was not very smart. Voters don't like a clone. Besides, Santos forgot that Uribe became president because of mass enthusiasm and of a large social movement outside the traditional political parties of Colombia. For Colombians, Uribe was not the expression of the elite but an alternative to politics as usual. Santos, a member of one of the most traditional oligarchic families of Bogota, represented the return to old politics. And the more Santos underscored how deep the roots of his experience in politics and in administration run, the more he reminded voters that he was an oldie. Mockus, instead, embodied the new, and was somehow perceived as the anti-establishment candidate. In this sense, Mockus represented the continuation of Uribe. Santos is involution, while Mockus is evolution.

3. Decency vs. Dirty. Why do you like Mockus? I asked several friends from all walks of life. "He calls out the best that is harbored in us," was the common answer. Voters just fell in love with this original former president of the Nacional University and twice mayor of Bogota. They fell in love not so much with his beard, but rather with his transparency, his simplicity, his honesty. They thought there was no better government program in Colombia then declaring war to endemic corruption and promoting a culture of legality. The buzz about Santos, instead, is that he believes ends, like winning the presidency, justify any means. I was struck to see how much resentment and aversion Santos was able to generate among different people. When Santos hired a Venezuelan publicist, known for being an expert in waging dirty campaigns and spreading false rumors against political opponents, the voters had enough, and deepened their support for Mockus. Voters had grown tired of the scandals and the corruption increasingly surrounding the Uribe administration of which Santos was a defense minister; the illegal interception and activities of the president's secret service agency, the DAS; the extra-judicial killings of more then one thousand innocent young men by the military; the linkages between corrupt politicians and the paramilitary; and the corruption that brought to the first reelection of President Uribe. Mockus embodied decency, while Santos....

4. Unity vs. Polarization. For eight years Uribe applied a rhetoric of enmity, radicalizing the hate of Colombians against the insurgency, and ultimately against everyone opposing his government. Uribe shaped a reality in black and white using a discourse of us against them. No surprise he felt greatly in tune with president Bush. The two indeed went along very well. The cloak of negativity this strategy produced, eventually tired people. Mockus' proposal was the exact opposite. He proposed a politics of togetherness, and called Colombians not to division but to unity. Santos represented polarization, while Mockus unity.

5. Participation vs. Machinery. Three weeks before the elections, Santos admitted that he underestimated the power of the Internet. Santos was confident that the traditional political machinery was going to deliver him the presidency. Mockus promoted a campaign of a different kind, one that empowered all citizens, especially young people, and stimulated their creativity and motivation. Individuals became formidable multipliers of Mocku's message. The campaign turned in a green wave that became bigger and stronger by the day, finally sweeping away Santos' aspirations. Most importantly, the wave cleared the field for an innovative and unique political experiment in Colombia. And God only knows how this country, embedded in decades of social, political and armed conflict, needs to try something new to get rid of old patterns of violence and corruption. Also in the campaign's strategy, Santos represented more of the same, and Santos the novelty - the deepening of democratic participation.

There is no guarantee of success with Mockus. No assured changed. The work ahead is titanic. But he represents a great and excellent opportunity. For now he achieved something already extraordinary in itself: to be elected by a totally free vote; free from drug lords, guerrillas, and traditional powerful machinery's influence. This in it self is a revolution. The biggest, not announced and non-violent revolution in Colombia.

Colombia candidate discloses Parkinson's diagnosis

BOGOTA -- A Colombian presidential candidate and popular former mayor of Bogota revealed Friday that he has been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease.

Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus has been vying for second place in recent public opinion polls ahead of May 30 presidential election. A second-round runoff is likely between the top two candidates.

Mockus said he is in the earlier stages of the degenerative disease and it would not affect his ability to be president.

"The prediction is that this will not affect my mental activities," Mockus told La W radio. "I think it is absolutely fitting to tell the people about the diagnosis and about the prognosis - which is 12 years or more of normal life thanks to medication."

Former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos is the favorite in election polls to succeed
President Alvaro Uribe, who is barred from seeking a third term.

Recent surveys place former Foreign Minister Noemi Sanin in second or third place.

About 1 million Americans have Parkinson's, and the National Parkinson Foundation estimates that 60,000 or so new cases are diagnosed every year.

Nerve cells in part of the brain die and stop producing dopamine, a chemical that affects body movement.

The illness has afflicted such high-profile figures as actor Michael J. Fox, Pope John Paul II and boxer Muhammad Ali.

Santos, Sanin Favoured In Colombia Election Race - Poll

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Former Colombian Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos leads the race for May's presidential vote, but would likely face Conservative candidate Noemi Sanin in a June run-off, a poll said on Sunday.

President Alvaro Uribe, a key U.S. ally in the region, steps down this year after two terms dominated by his campaign against rebels and any candidate to succeed him will likely stick close to his popular security and investment policies.

Santos, head of Uribe's U Party, would win 36 percent of the votes and Sanin, a former foreign minister, 17 percent in the first round, according to local pollster Ipsos-Napoleon Franco printed in Semana weekly news magazine.

Sunday's poll results mirror two recent surveys showing the June run-off will likely be between Santos and Sanin, who both claim to be heirs to Uribe's successful security campaign and promise to bring more social and economic development.

Their nearest rival, former Bogota Mayor Antanas Mockus, an independent, had 9 percent followed by former Uribe ally German Vargas Lleras with 8 percent and leftist opposition candidate Gustavo Petro at 6 percent, the poll said.

To win outright in May's first ballot, a candidate must secure more than 50 percent of the votes. Neither of the two leading candidates has enough support for the moment to avoid a second round in June.

In a second round, Santos would win 44 percent of the vote compared with 30 percent for Sanin, the poll said.

Santos is more clearly identified by Colombians with Uribe's government, but Sanin could present herself as a more moderate Uribe supporter and the candidate who could attract more opposition votes to her camp in a run-off, analysts say.

Violence, kidnappings and bombings from the Andean country's long war have eased since Uribe was first elected in 2002 promising to smash Latin America's longest-running rebel insurgency with the help of billions of dollars in U.S. aid.

Foreign investment, especially in oil and mining, has flooded back, jumping to an expected $10 billion (6.7 billion pounds) this year from $2 billion when Uribe came to office eight years ago.
Many Colombians still thank Uribe to taking on the guerrillas, outlawed paramilitaries and cocaine traffickers who once controlled large parts of the country. But polls show most Colombians are more concerned about unemployment, poverty and health coverage than security.

Sanin wins Colombian conservative candidacy

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombia's former foreign minister Noemi Sanin won the country's Conservative Party candidacy for May's presidential election in a decision that risks splitting President Alvaro Uribe's political coalition.

Sanin, the only female presidential candidate, will challenge front-runner Juan Manuel Santos in the election and try to leverage her party's strong results in Sunday's legislative vote as capital for her run at the top job.

Uribe, popular for his U.S.-backed security campaign against leftist guerrillas, must step aside after two terms. He leaves six serious candidates competing to replace him as president of the world's No. 3 coffee exporter.

"I call on my party to unite," Sanin said in a victory speech at her Bogota headquarters.

"Now there is only one team."

In power since 2002, Uribe took the fight to the FARC or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, smashing Latin America's oldest insurgency to its weakest in decades. Violence has ebbed and investment soared and any candidate who replaces Uribe is unlikely to steer too far from his basic policies.

Santos, leader of Uribe's U Party which is in a coalition with the Conservatives, claims to be the heir to the president's security and pro-investment ideas.

He is leading in opinion polls but does not have enough support to avoid a run-off in June, polls and analysts say.

CONSERVATIVES EYE VICTORY

Sanin, a former ambassador to Britain, won 1,118,090 votes versus 1,080,313 votes for nearest rival Andres Felipe Arias, according to tallies from more than 99 percent of results.
Arias, a former agriculture minister, had suggested he could strike a deal with Santos to present a single candidate for the Uribe alliance.

But Sanin, who has run for the presidency twice before, said she would "go to the end" for her own party rather than joining with Santos and the U Party.

The results from the internal ballot were delayed since Sunday's vote because of polling station errors and technical glitches in transmitting data.

Sunday's Conservative Party vote took place at the same time as Colombians elected a new Congress in which the U Party and the Conservatives maintained their majority in both houses of the legislature. But the Conservative showing is prompting party chieftains to see their chance to replace Uribe.

Should she make a second round against Santos, Sanin could position herself as a moderate who would maintain Uribe's policies but in alliance with opposition parties against Santos, said Mauricio Romero, political science professor at Bogota's Javeriana University.

"There are two trends in the party. Arias represents Uribe supporters and Sanin the more reformist sector," he said. "The Conservatives now see a better chance at the presidency."

All uribistas now: But which one will succeed the president?

ALTHOUGH he is barred by the constitution from seeking a third term in the presidential election in May, Álvaro Uribe’s influence over Colombia will remain great. As votes were slowly tallied in an election for a new Congress on March 14th, it became clear that parties which formed part of his centre-right coalition will retain a clear majority. Who will command these legislators is less so.

The vote seemed to strengthen the claims of Juan Manuel Santos, a former defence minister who more than anyone else embodies the continuation of Mr Uribe’s “democratic security” policy. Mr Santos’s U Party (that’s U for Uribe) won 25% of the valid votes, and increased its representation in the 102-seat Senate to 28, from 20.

But Mr Santos looks unlikely to win an outright victory, avoiding a run-off vote. He wants a broad coalition with other uribista forces, including the Conservative Party. The Conservatives did well, winning 21% of the vote and raising their total of senators by four, to 22. But their primary, held on the same day, was so close that it was unlikely to produce a result for days. Only then will it be clear whether or not the party offers a strong challenge to Mr Santos.
A less welcome potential ally for Mr Santos is the new National Integration Party (PIN), formed by friends and relatives of former legislators accused by prosecutors of links to right-wing paramilitary militias. This party won nine senate seats and 8% of the valid votes, mainly in the north of the country.

Some of Mr Uribe’s main opponents fared poorly. The left-wing Democratic Pole party lost two senate seats and was outpolled by the PIN. A parliamentary list backing Sergio Fajardo, a former mayor of Medellín running for the presidency as an independent, managed to elect only one senator. Mr Fajardo faces a strong rival for independent-minded voters in Antanas Mockus, who won a presidential primary for the newly formed Green Party, which secured five senate seats.

For most of the past two centuries, Colombian politics was dominated by just two parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives. Mr Uribe, a Liberal who ran as an independent and behaved as a Conservative, upset that pattern. He is bequeathing a politically fractured country, even if many of the splits turn more around personalities than policies.

World Digest: Former defense minister front-runner in Colombia election

With results from congressional elections trickling in Monday, Juan Manuel Santos, a former defense minister who marshaled U.S. aid to thrash Marxist guerrillas, has consolidated his position as the front-runner to succeed Álvaro Uribe as president of Colombia.

His party, the U, won 27 of 102 seats in the Senate, seven more than it had after the 2006 elections. That put Santos, 58, scion of a newspaper dynasty, in the best position to win elections in May.

"Today the U party has won -- the party of President Uribe," Santos said late Sunday after polls closed. "We are newly consolidated as the principal political force in the country."
Santos has declared himself the heir of Uribe's tough military strategies, which in eight years pushed rebel forces away from large urban areas. Polls show Uribe would have easily won a third election, but last month the country's high court turned back his efforts to reform the constitution to permit another term.

Santos is an American-educated politician with ties on Capitol Hill. His main rivals include a former agriculture minister, a former mayor of Medellin and a former operative of a guerrilla group.

Transit strike in Colombia ends

A four-day transit strike that created a traffic nightmare in the Colombian capital and brought protesters into the streets was resolved Thursday, officials said.

The strike, which affected some 8 million passengers, ended after the transportation workers reached an agreement with the city government.

The owners of small- and medium-sized bus companies were protesting because they said a new integrated transportation plan would have left them out in the cold.

Bogota's mayor wants to implement a new transport system that would reduce from 66 to 13 the number of companies that perform public transport duties in the city.

The city's plan to entice drivers to join the new transport system was not generous enough, workers said.

The drivers would not get a big enough cut of the operations, and offers from the city to buy some buses from smaller companies to add to the new fleet were too small, the strikers said.
Journalist Fernando Ramos contributed to this report for CNN.